When Abdullah Ocalan mentioned his Kurdistan Staff’ Social gathering, or PKK, ought to lay down its arms and disband after greater than 4 many years of battle with the Turkish state and tens of 1000’s of deaths, there was an immediate look throughout the border to Syria.
Syria’s northeast is essentially managed by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a Kurdish-led army power Turkiye has repeatedly fought towards over the previous decade.
The SDF is led by the Individuals’s Safety Models (YPG), which Turkiye views as a “terrorist” group and the Syrian department of the PKK. The USA, nonetheless, has backed the YPG in Syria to struggle towards ISIL (ISIS).
Because the fall of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in December, the SDF has been negotiating with the brand new Turkish-allied authorities in Damascus over what its future position in a newly unified Syria and as a army power will probably be and what sort of governance will prolong to the northeast of the nation.
No laying down of arms
The elimination of the PKK from the equation will possible facilitate the SDF’s integration with Damascus, analysts instructed Al Jazeera.
“For the SDF, it makes it a lot simpler to speak with the federal government in Damascus and likewise to de-escalate their relations with Turkey,” mentioned Wladimir van Wilgenburg, an analyst of Kurdish politics based mostly in Erbil, the capital of the autonomous Kurdish area of northern Iraq.
Whereas the SDF rejects Turkiye’s assertions that it’s the Syrian arm of the PKK, analysts mentioned the teams have sturdy hyperlinks.
Whereas the PKK’s announcement that it might heed Ocalan’s name and disarm was welcomed by SDF chief Mazloum Abdi, he mentioned his group wouldn’t disarm and Ocalan’s determination didn’t prolong to Syria.
However this might give the group additional incentives to deliver its preventing power and governing construction – known as the Autonomous Administration in North and East Syria (AANES) – underneath the umbrella of the brand new authorities in Damascus.
When reached for touch upon Monday, an AANES spokesperson instructed Al Jazeera: “The autonomous administration isn’t involved with the inner affairs of different international locations.”
The SDF has clashed with Turkish-backed Syrian factions, together with within the quick days after the autumn of al-Assad’s regime, and sustained assaults from Turkiye’s air power.
In December, the US negotiated a ceasefire between the SDF and the Turkish-backed Syrian Nationwide Military, which has since been integrated into Syria’s new armed forces.
Abdi has been in discussions with the brand new Syrian authorities, led by Ahmed al-Sharaa, over how greatest to combine the SDF into the post-Baathist Social gathering safety forces and govern Syria’s northeast.
Elevated stress to barter
The SDF has engaged within the talks with the stress of an impending US troop withdrawal from northeast Syria.
And not using a US presence and assist, the SDF has feared it could be susceptible to assaults from Turkiye or Turkish-backed factions in Syria.
However ought to the PKK’s determination to disarm deliver a sense of safety to Turkiye alongside its border with Syria, analysts mentioned the relations between the SDF and Turkiye would additionally possible enhance.
“We all know that Turkey’s hardline stance in the direction of the SDF was very a lot linked to issues over the PKK and never a lot concerning the SDF being Kurdish-dominated,” Thomas Pierret, a Syria specialist and senior researcher on the Institute of Analysis and Examine on the Arab and Islamic Worlds, instructed Al Jazeera.
That is evident by Turkiye’s relations with Masoud Barzani and his Kurdish Democratic Social gathering in northern Iraq’s Kurdish area, Pierret mentioned.
After all, this new actuality “doesn’t imply it is going to be straightforward”, in line with Pierret. Below the settlement between Turkiye and the PKK, some fighters could possibly be relocated to third countries – basically despatched into exile. There’s additionally the likelihood some fighters might resolve to make their approach to northeast Syria, through which case, Pierret mentioned, Turkiye might see the SDF as a haven for PKK fighters.
So Turkiye will hold a detailed eye on the SDF in Syria and the SDF’s negotiations with Damascus.
Prior to now, the Turkish army has launched drones, fired artillery and carried out air strikes towards Kurdish fighters, together with the SDF. And analysts mentioned army choices should still be on the desk going ahead.
“For now, they appear to be letting negotiations take their course,” Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide with a concentrate on Syria, instructed Al Jazeera. “And that’s most likely associated each to occasions in Syria but in addition to the PKK course of.”
Past Syria
The PKK’s associates and allies are unfold throughout areas of the Center East the place Kurds reside.
Traditionally, the PKK has operated in Turkiye in addition to northern Iraq. And their allies have operated in locations the place Kurds reside in Syria and Iran. Their struggles have usually opposed the nationwide authorities in these locations or sought self-determination or federalism.
One instance is the Kurdistan Free Life Social gathering, or PJAK, in Iran, which says its aim is to declare an autonomous Kurdish area in Iran.
“It’s unclear what is going to occur with the … PJAK as a result of in addition they have various Iranian Kurdish fighters contained in the PKK,” van Wildenburg mentioned.
“It’s attainable that they are going to proceed as a political social gathering and never as an armed group as a result of they’re already not doing a lot preventing towards the Iranian state anyway.”
Analysts agree it’s unclear whether or not the PKK’s allies will comply with Ocalan’s lead and lay down their arms or, as is the case with the SDF in Syria, if they are going to view their very own struggles as impartial and make selections on their very own.
