LAS VEGAS — Can Kansas Metropolis’s distinctive fortune proceed for a sixth consecutive season?
Some say that affluent run expired Feb. 9 in New Orleans, the place the Eagles smashed the Chiefs 40-22 in Tremendous Bowl LIX.
In accordance with stat-based Pythagorean extrapolations, the Chiefs (17-3) accrued 5.2 extra victories than they deserved due to favorable bounces and sure whistles, or non-calls, by officers.
Furthermore, the Chiefs’ luck issue since 2020, OddsBreakers handicapper Kiev O’Neil mentioned, “simply is tops within the league.”
He espouses “pythag” theories, charts them yearly and paperwork that Kansas Metropolis was No. 1 in 2020, second in ’22 and seventh in ’23.
Not so coincidentally, the Chiefs are 37-13 in one-score video games, determined by eight factors or fewer, since ’20, a stretch wherein they’re an NFL-best 79-21 general. Okay.C. moneyline motion has been a gold mine.
Till now. O’Neil believes the Chiefs’ fortunate run begins fizzling. Amongst his early team-win performs, he wager Chiefs beneath 11.5 at -120, or threat $120 to win $100.
“Large regression coming,” O’Neil mentioned, “with an ageing staff.”
Chasing worth
O’Neil additionally purchased Chargers over 9.5 (-110), trumpeting coach Jim Harbaugh, and Saints beneath 6.5 (-165).
(Odds and costs are topic to alter.)
“The fourth-place schedule is way tougher, with the 49ers and Bears there,” O’Neil mentioned of the Saints, “and [quarterback Derek] Carr retired.”
To poach post-draft/pre-camp win-totals worth, I tapped a choose group of ’cappers whose recommendation I heeded final 12 months to go 4-0 in such motion.
(I hit each Raiders beneath 6.5 (+100) and Panthers beneath 5.5 (+100), plus double-unit motion on 49ers beneath 11.5 (-140) and Patriots beneath 5 (-130).)
All unders, since sure consultants have satisfied me the way it’s wiser to wager on one thing to not occur relatively than on one thing occurring. An excessive amount of can go improper, they opine, and often does.
Plus, the general public usually favors over, creating benefits. As an illustration, DraftKings opened its totals two months in the past with numbers practically mirroring the precise quantity of NFL victories that can occur this season.
By Monday, although, bets have pumped these totals up 10 triumphs. Totals on the Browns (to six.5) and Giants, Jets and Titans (all to 7.5) have every been boosted by two video games.
DK director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello instructed me costs mirror these modifications. As an illustration, Jets beneath 5.5 (+125) is now beneath 7.5 (-250).
“The general public completely loves overs,” Lengthy Island handicapper Tom Barton mentioned, “as a result of they’re betting ‘their’ staff.”
Mile-high regression?
Matt Youmans, senior broadcaster/author for the Vegas Stats & Info Community (VSiN) who went 7-0 on totals in ’24, has purchased Saints beneath 6.5 (-155) and Steelers over 8.5 (+110).
The 5-12 Saints had been considered one of 10 groups to complete final season with 5 victories or fewer, Youmans notes, and he envisions scant enchancment with rookie coach Kellen Moore and questionable quarterbacks.
Youmans touts Steelers coach Mike Tomlin’s sterling monitor report and Pittsburgh’s offseason strikes, and he pegs it as quarterback Aaron Rodgers’s subsequent touchdown spot.
“He most likely has one first rate 12 months left in him,” Youmans mentioned. “Rodgers stunk final 12 months, and he’s a diva with baggage. However he must be in higher form, and that is his final shot.”
In Boston, BetMGM’s “Guess Sweats” co-host Sam Panayotovich has Chargers over 9.5 (+110), on an improved quarterback in Justin Herbert, the drafting of tailback Omarion Hampton and a stalwart offensive line, and Broncos beneath 8.5 (-125).
“Every thing broke proper for Denver final 12 months, and it received 10 video games,” Panayotovich mentioned. “I count on regression there.”
Barton acquired in early on Giants over 5.5 (+125), favoring an elite pass-rushing entrance line. He hopes Bengals 10 and Niners 11 each rise, aiming to play each beneath.
Suppose craps
Former UNLV quarterback Jon Denton was raised in Vegas, is a household man in Iowa and fares effectively betting sports activities, particularly soccer. He additionally is aware of casinos.
He is aware of books know the psyche of their clientele, 80% of who, Denton mentioned, “are there for a great time. Take into consideration craps. Your odds of successful are higher in the event you wager ‘Don’t Move,’ however who needs to be ‘that man’ on the desk?”
Denton likes Raiders over 6.5 (-145), as proprietor Mark Davis has deigned extra energy to minority proprietor Tom Brady in luring coach Pete Carroll and Geno Smith, a “drastic improve” at quarterback.
“What a distinction from this time final 12 months,” Denton says. “New regime. New QB. Working sport must be efficient. Defensively, they’re top-third within the league. I feel they get to this complete.”
He’s additionally on Lions, 15-3 final season however now with out offensive coordinator Ben Johnson (Bears’ head coach) and defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn (Jets’ head coach), over 10.5 (-110).
“I count on regression, however there’s cushion in that five-win drop from final 12 months,” Denton says. “An elite offensive line, wholesome protection. [Is losing both] coordinators value 5 wins? Favorable division, too.”
In sum
Based mostly on these opinions, on Tuesday on the Westgate SuperBook I purchased Chiefs beneath 11.5 (-130), Saints beneath 5.5 (-120), Broncos beneath 9 (+110) and Bengals beneath 10 (-120).
By way of Denton’s cue, I grabbed Bears beneath 8.5 (-110). Faults and flaws, beneath one other new regime with a first-time head coach, will likely be comprehensible if not anticipated. The Bears’ “pythag” projection is 6.7; one other snug cushion.
All beneath motion. Hopefully my luck, not like the Chiefs’, continues.
