Final November, whenAzerbaijanhosted COP29, the United Nations’ annual local weather summit, it was a form of coming-out occasion for the nation. Organizers needed to showcase how their small nation of practically 11 million, on the western shore of the Caspian Sea,had developed over its three many years of independence and was able to play a task on this planet’s energy transition.
Held in Baku’s Olympic Stadium, COP29’s headline talks had beenlargelya flop. The U.N.failed to persuade developed nations to decide to giving creating ones overUS$1 trillion yearly. However in a side roomaway from media consideration, a unique local weather dialogue concluded extra auspiciously.
There, delegations from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Hungary, and Romania finalized an bold plan: to generate as much as 6 gigawatts of clean energy within the Caucasus area, run the electrical energy by way of a cable alongside the underside of the Black Sea, and ship it to Europe. The nations hope to complete a primary section of the venture, comprising two cables with a capability of 1.3 GW, by 2030.That might be sufficient to provide over 2 million European households. This green energy hall may assist shore up energy security within the European Union, changing the Russian natural gas that Europe used to import. It may assist the E.U. meet
its increasingly strict emissions targets. And the hall may increase financial ties between Europe and its neighbors, supporters of the plan say.
However the bold venture faces main obstacles. The Black Sea is sort of 1,200 kilometers lengthy, and the proposed undersea energy cable would want to run the size of it, making it the longest and deepest on this planet. In the meanwhile, the Caucasus nations don’t produce sufficient renewable electrical energy to export it, so that they must construct a minimum of 3 times extra capability. Each of those efforts would take an enormous, not-yet-secured monetary funding.
What’s extra, safety issues within the Black Sea may endanger the cable and the specialised ships that may lay it down. Floating mines used within the ongoing Ukraine battle already pose a danger to ships in these waters. And very important undersea cables elsewhere in Europe have not too long ago been focused, together with an influence line below the Baltic Sea that
was severed in December. Western authorities authorities deemed it an act of sabotage doubtless organized by Russia, and known as it a new and growing risk for undersea infrastructure.
Briefly, the architects of the inexperienced hall face important and various obstacles. But when they succeed, it should mark a daring feat of engineering to spice up clear power and combat local weather.
Azerbaijan’s Pivot From Oil to Photo voltaic and Wind
Of the six nations that make up the Caucasus area, Azerbaijan boasts the biggest potential for producing exportable renewable energy for Europe, a incontrovertible fact that presents some measure of irony. Azerbaijan constructed its economic system on its plentiful fossil fuels. Methane naturally seeps out of the bottom in some locations, feeding
ever-burning fires that in historic instances stoked Zoroastrian non secular beliefs and earned Azerbaijan the nickname “the land of fireplace.”
In 1846, Baku, the nation’s capital, was the positioning of the world’s first mechanically drilled oil properly, and by the flip of the twentieth century, the nation provided greater than half of the world’s oil. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, manufacturing and export of oil and gas proved instrumental in lifting Azerbaijan out of post-Communist poverty. Fossil fuels nonetheless symbolize
90 percent of Azerbaijan’s exports and up to 50 percent of its GDP, based on the International Energy Agency.
Masdar’s 230-MW Garadagh plant, the primary utility-scale solar farm in Azerbaijan, serves as an early signal of the nation’s power transition.Masdar
Over the previous decade, although, Azerbaijan has tried to inexperienced up its power sector. In 2016, for instance, the nation
set a goal of sourcing 20 p.c of its power from renewables by 2020. Nevertheless it fell far short of that purpose, main observers to wonder if the petrostate was critical or simply partaking in greenwashing.
Azerbaijan’s first important step towards its clear power purpose was
the completion, in 2023, of the Garadagh photo voltaic plant, about an hour’s drive from Baku. The plant sits in a bowl-shaped patch of dry scrubland ringed by hills, empty apart from the occasional shepherd passing along with his flock. The plant’s solar panels run in lengthy rows over the gently sloped terrain. Each minute or so, the quiet is damaged by a mechanical whir, as motors robotically reposition the panels to trace the solar’s path throughout the sky.
The plant provides as much as 230 megawatts of energy to Azerbaijan’s grid. Website supervisor
Kamil Manafov works from a management room that also smells like new constructing supplies, the place giant wall-mounted screens show the plant’s minute-by-minute efficiency. “I grew up within the closest village to right here, Gobustan,” Manafov informed IEEE Spectrum throughout a go to in November. Now, the village attracts energy partially from the Garadagh plant, and college teams come to Garadagh virtually each week to find out how photo voltaic crops work in apply, he says.
Azerbaijan’s Power Transition
At his welcome-to-COP29 speech, Azerbaijani president Ilham Aliyev proclaimed that
the country would build 6 GW of renewable-energy capability by 2030, and that it has agreements to construct a complete of 10 GW—far past the 1.7 GW the nation at present generates. A few of the added electrical energy could be used domestically, whereas a lot could be despatched overseas.
To develop its renewable power technology, Azerbaijan is generally banking on wind power, which received’t shock anybody who’s hung out in Baku and felt the fierce wind that always blows by way of it.
A 2022 road map from the World Financial institution, the Worldwide Finance Corp., and Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Power estimated that the nation may realistically set up 7 GW of offshore wind energy within the Caspian Sea by 2040.
On shore, Azerbaijan’s first main wind-power venture, a 240-MW plant within the japanese areas of Khizi and Absheron, is below building and expected to be operational by subsequent 12 months. Three more solar and wind plants, totaling 1 GW, are additionally below growth.
A lot of the cash and experience for these initiatives comes from overseas. Masdar, a United Arab Emirates state-owned firm that develops green-energy initiatives, secured the funding for and continues to operate the Garadagh plant. Acwa Energy, an energy-development firm primarily based in Saudi Arabia, holds the same role within the Khizi–Absheron wind plant. Thus far, the 2 have introduced they are going to make investments over $6 billion whole in Azerbaijan’s green-energy initiatives.
Masdar alone may be certain that the president’s guarantees are saved: The corporate aims to develop 10 GW of unpolluted power by 2030, together with the initiatives in progress. “On this area we’ve got plenty of potential that’s untapped,” says Maryam Al Mazrouei, Masdar’s head of enterprise growth for a lot of the previous Soviet Union, who spoke with IEEE Spectrum on the U.A.E.’s pavilion at COP29. “The sources and infrastructure can be found, and there may be the desire to do it.”
A few of the initiatives symbolize extra than simply clear energy. The power large BP and the Azerbaijani authorities hosted a signing ceremony at COP29 for the 240-MW Shafag photo voltaic plant, which will probably be constructed close to Jabrayil, about 350 km southwest of Baku. The city was destroyed and deserted throughout Azerbaijan’s current battle with the Armenia-backed breakaway area of Nagorno-Karabakh. Throughout preventing in 2020, Azerbaijan retook the land, and in 2021 the federal government declared that the area could be developed as a carbon-neutral “green energy zone.”
Areas razed by battle are like a “a clean white paper,” says Orkhan Huseynov, a spokesman for SOCAR, the State Oil Firm of the Republic of Azerbaijan. “We will write no matter we would like.” The plant’s title, Shafag, means “dawn” in Azerbaijani—the plant will produce solar power, sure, nevertheless it’s additionally a brand new begin for the area.
The Flame Towers in Baku symbolize the nation’s power sources and historic historical past of fireplace worship. In November, Baku hosted the twenty ninth annual United Nations Climate Change Convention. Emad Aljumah/Getty Pictures
The Yanar Dağ, a natural-gas fireplace, repeatedly blazes on a hillside on the Absheron Peninsula on the Caspian Sea, close to Baku. It stoked fireplace worship in historic instances.Stephen Anthony Rohan/Getty Pictures
As a result of the Caucasus green-energy hall guarantees higher grid stability by diversifying electrical energy sources, higher commerce connections, and assist with the power transition, Azerbaijan’s neighbors are vying to be included. Bulgaria needs in, as does Armenia.
Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan stay excessive, nevertheless. The E.U. want to embody Armenia within the Black Sea power venture however Azerbaijani officers have reportedly mentioned they are going to admit Armenia provided that it indicators a peace treaty affirming the standing of Nagorno-Karabakh. This is able to quantity to Armenia accepting defeat and end result within the departure of ethnic Armenians from the disputed territory.
In the meantime, Azerbaijan and its neighbors to the east—Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan—are planning a
cross-border electricity trade that includes laying a transmission cable a whole lot of kilometers throughout the Caspian Sea. Uzbekistan has built solar and wind plants totaling 3.5 GW and is creating 24 GW extra, with plans to export a lot of it to Europe. This is able to successfully make a green-energy megagrid working all the best way from the middle of Asia to Europe’s Atlantic coast.
Black Sea Energy Hyperlink
Even when all of this new power generation will get constructed, organizers of the Caucasus green-energy hall will nonetheless have to maneuver the electrical energy throughout an enormous physique of water into Europe. The
longest existing undersea power cable carries 1.4 GW throughout a 720-km stretch of the North Sea between England and Norway, at depths of as much as 700 meters. The Black Sea energy hyperlink, in contrast, would traverse over 1,100 km of water, at depths as much as 2,200 meters, which might make it slightly deeper than any current subsea electrical energy cable on this planet.
A primary section of the Black Sea venture may carry 1.3 GW, lower than 1 / 4 of the venture’s aspirational 6 GW.
A feasibility study finalized at COP29 and carried out by CESI, an Italian engineering consultancy, concluded the primary section of the venture was doable and would value $3.1 to three.7 billion. The road would run from Anaklia, Georgia, on the east finish of the Black Sea, to Constanța, Romania, on the west finish, and would require some new infrastructure to attach it to the present grid there. The electrical energy delivered would circulate into Hungary and the remainder of Europe from there. A possible second section would develop the undersea line to between 4 and 6 GW.
Laying the Black Sea line presents a formidable engineering problem. Solely two corporations on this planet—
Prysmian, primarily based in Milan, and Nexans in Paris—have put in this sort of deep-sea electrical cable. They each use particular ships that carry as much as 13,000 tonnes of cable in segments as much as 200-km lengthy and wrapped round large spools as much as 30 meters in diameter.
The Nexans cable-laying vessel can carry as much as 13,000 tonnes of cable on spool-like turntables. Nexans, primarily based in Paris, is one among solely two corporations on this planet which have put in deep-sea energy cables.Nexans
Ship crews can lay round 10 km of cable per day; after they get to the tip of a section, staff known as jointers join one section to the subsequent by manually welding collectively every of the cables’ many layers. Whereas telecommunications cables have been laid in
trenches 8-km deep, energy cables are a lot thicker and heavier, so putting and even transporting them is more difficult. Only one,200 km of this sort of cable are manufactured every year globally, and with buyer demand from different initiatives, it should take three to 4 years simply to supply sufficient for the Black Sea venture.
As if all of that isn’t tough sufficient, the Black Sea
is littered with floating mines positioned by each Ukraine and Russia throughout their ongoing battle. A few of the mines flow into across the sea, ending up in unpredictable locations, including Romanian beaches. The mines are sparse sufficient that commerce within the Black Sea has virtually returned to prewar ranges, however ships are nonetheless in danger.
Intentional sabotage of undersea cables—a brand new form of menace—additionally hangs over the venture. This previous Christmas, an undersea energy cable connecting Finland and Estonia was partially severed, and
Finnish investigators said the injury doubtless resulted from an oil tanker dragging its anchor. The E.U.’s head of overseas affairs mentioned the ship was a part of Russia’s “shadow fleet,” a gaggle of a whole lot of vessels which can be formally unbiased however allegedly take orders from the Kremlin.
That wasn’t the one incident of sabotage. Two fiber-optic communications cables working below the Baltic Sea
were severed in November, and Western governments suggested that Moscow directed the assault. Russia allegedly has been gathering information and building such capabilities for a minimum of a few years.
Power-industry observers say they’re involved that the Black Sea green-energy cable, which successfully sidelines Russia by offering a substitute for its pure gasoline, may stoke a focused assault. If insurers are spooked by this chance, they could refuse to cowl the cable, which may scotch the venture earlier than it begins.
Undersea Cable May Increase E.U. Power Safety
The thought for the Black Sea cable emerged a few decade in the past amongst grid operators and consultants within the Black Sea area. It piqued curiosity in energy-policy circles, and in 2020, the World Financial institution printed a research discovering that the cable may very well be financially productive. The following 12 months, USAID and the
United States Energy Association discovered that it made technical sense. However the bold concept didn’t garner robust political or monetary help. “Often, these initiatives require some political backing,” says
Agha Bayramov, an power geopolitics researcher on the College of Groningen, in the Netherlands. “What nice energy will help it?”
The venture inadvertently discovered that nice energy with the beginning of the Ukraine battle. When Russia invaded in February 2022, the E.U. severely sanctioned the nation, which responded by
cutting the amount of natural gas it sends to Europe by 55 p.c in 2022 and by 81 p.c in 2023. On the identical time, the E.U. had set demanding new targets for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The end result: Europe wanted different sources of power.
Azerbaijan hopes to generate gigawatts of renewable electrical energy and ship it throughout the Black Sea to Europe.
The E.U. compensated by
increasing gas imports from different nations, akin to Norway and the United States, and by reducing its gasoline consumption total. However over the long term, to satisfy its local weather objectives, the continent will want entry to much more clean energy, making the thought of the Black Sea cable venture much more interesting.
In December 2022, leaders from Azerbaijan, Georgia, Hungary, and Romania signed a memorandum of understanding on creating the inexperienced hall. On the signing ceremony, Ursula von der Leyen, the president of the European Commission,
voiced strong support for the venture. An E.U. commissioner tweeted the identical month that the union anticipated to contribute an estimated €2.3 billion ($2.5 billion) for the cable.
However that cash will not be but assured, and extra will probably be wanted. To that finish, Georgia and Romania intention to get the cable designated a
Project of Mutual Interest, making it a precedence for the E.U. and doubtlessly unlocking billions in funding. “Psychologically it’s very, excellent to get that standing,” says Zviad Gachechiladze, one of many plan’s architects and a director at Georgian State Electrosystem, the nation’s grid operator. Transmission traces connecting Azerbaijan to the Black Sea will run by way of Georgia.
One other key gatekeeper is
SOCAR, which oversees the nation’s power infrastructure and serves as a contractor for its renewable-energy initiatives. The corporate’s Baku headquarters sit in a modern, curving, 42-story tower constructed to resist wind speeds as much as 190 kilometers per hour.
On the finish of 2023, SOCAR created a subsidiary, SOCAR Inexperienced, to implement the nation’s renewable-energy plans. However clearly, Azerbaijan’s large green-energy objectives stay subordinate to fossil fuels for the foreseeable future.
Spectrum met with SOCAR spokesman Orkhan Huseynov within the SOCAR Tower, its metal exterior gleaming on a cool, but not uncomfortably windy day. “We do really feel local weather change. The extent of the Caspian is falling. The rivers have much less water,” says Huseynov. However “making the change to inexperienced power in 30 years will not be straightforward,” he says. “Oil and gasoline are the cornerstone of our economic system. Each household has somebody working on this {industry}. We’re making an attempt to maintain the steadiness.”
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