Turkey likely to play major role in shaping post-Assad Syria : NPR

ISTANBUL — Because the world watches Syria grapple with the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime and the formation of a brand new authorities, one nation has emerged as having nice affect over the brand new Syria: its neighbor to the north, Turkey.

In a press convention on Monday, President-elect Donald Trump mentioned he believed that Turkey was behind Assad’s downfall.

“Turkey did an unfriendly takeover with out numerous lives being misplaced,” Trump mentioned. “I believe Turkey goes to carry the important thing to Syria.”

The Turkish authorities has not publicly commented on Trump’s remarks.

What was Turkey’s position within the Syrian civil warfare?

Earlier than Syria’s civil warfare erupted nearly 14 years in the past, Turkey loved secure relations with the nation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Assad received alongside effectively, to the extent that their households even vacationed collectively as soon as. However after Assad’s brutal crackdown on peaceable protesters in 2011, Erdogan reduce ties and put his intelligence and army sources behind insurgent teams combating Assad.

“Turkey’s objective was, after all, in any respect prices unseating Bashar al-Assad,” mentioned political analyst Soli Ozel, who teaches at Kadir Has College in Istanbul.

Turkey, a NATO member that shares a protracted southern border with Syria, opened its doorways to the most important variety of Syrian refugees of any nation, in response to United Nations data — peaking at more than 3.7 million in 2021 — a lot of whom had been linked with opposition teams and beneath risk from the Assad regime.

Then-Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (left) talks with Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister on the time, throughout a gathering in Istanbul on June 7, 2010.

Osman Orsal/Pool/AFP through Getty Photographs

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Osman Orsal/Pool/AFP through Getty Photographs

However by 2018, as Assad gave the impression to be successful the civil warfare — with the assistance of Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah — Turkey’s place got here with a value. It confronted home and financial difficulties, with the general public blaming the Syrian refugees. And the nation additionally confronted safety threats alongside its border with Syria.

Earlier than the insurgent teams moved on Assad’s military in late November, Turkey’s targets had shifted to making sure that insurgent enclaves like Idlib in Syria’s north had been secure, to be able to stop extra refugee inflow into Turkey, in response to Turkish International Minister Hakan Fidan.

“In Idlib, round 4 million Syrians lived beneath the management of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” he mentioned in an interview Sunday with Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hadath TV, referring to the Islamist group, also called HTS, that led fighters who toppled Assad and is now main Syria. “There was at all times a threat of those individuals coming to Turkey throughout instances of disaster.”

He added, “To forestall these crises and keep stability, we’ve remained in coordination with these teams, and thru this course of, we had the chance to get to know them.”

Within the months earlier than the shock insurgent takeover of Assad-controlled areas, the Turkish authorities was beneath heavy home stress to resolve the refugee disaster. Opposition politicians noticed the federal government’s help of insurgent teams as a strategic mistake. Erdogan’s administration had even begun to discover the potential for mending ties with Assad, nevertheless it by no means got here to fruition.

Now, after greater than a decade, there is a sense of vindication in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, that it wasn’t all for nothing.

“Lots of people replicate on this within the sense that Turkey is a winner. It has proximity, it has affect. It has troops greater than the rest,” Ozel mentioned.

What sort of affect will Turkey have on the brand new Syrian management?

Turkey is already visibly energetic in Syria. The Turkish Embassy in Damascus is up and working. And Turkey’s intelligence chief paid a go to to Damascus final week and met with the chief of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa — previously recognized by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani — who’s now the de facto chief of the brand new Syrian administration.

In his interview with Al Hadath TV, Fidan mentioned that Turkey has been sending messages from Western and regional international locations to the brand new Syrian management in an effort to average HTS. The group shaped as an affiliate of al-Qaida in 2011. Turkey, america and the United Nations Security Council have designated HTS as a terrorist group. However since defeating Assad, the group has portrayed itself as extra average and inclusive of different religions and minorities, with encouragement from the Turkish authorities.

“There have been sure ideas that the majority events appeared to agree on. These embrace stopping terrorist organizations from benefiting from Damascus within the new period, making certain good remedy of minorities, particularly Christians, Kurds, Alevis and Turkmen, and establishing an inclusive authorities,” Fidan mentioned.

In an interview with Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak on Wednesday, HTS chief Sharaa mentioned there could be “strategic relations” between the 2 international locations.

“Of the numerous international locations Syrians sought refuge in, Turkey welcomed them and revered them essentially the most. I hope that Syria will not neglect this kindness,” Sharaa mentioned.

He added that Syria’s insurgent takeover was a win for Turkey: “This victory will not be solely the victory of the Syrian individuals but additionally of the Turkish individuals.”

In the end, analysts say, Turkey would not management HTS and plenty of questions stay about what the brand new Syrian administration will form as much as be. These are potential challenges for the Turkish authorities, in response to Ozel.

“If HTS beneficial properties extra energy, how far more amenable is it going to be to Turkey’s options, suggestions? That is still to be seen,” Ozel mentioned.

However specialists say the brand new Syrian leaders must depend on Turkey to assist them set up public order, kind establishments and supply sources, like water and electrical energy. With a lot of Syria destroyed, Turkish building corporations are more likely to search a lead position in reconstruction.

“We belief that Turkey will switch its expertise in financial growth to Syria,” Sharaa instructed Yeni Safak newspaper.

Then there may be the matter of the Syrian refugees in Turkey. A lot of them now communicate Turkish fluently and have enterprise relations and different ties with Turkey, which might present extra technique of affect for the Turkish authorities, ought to they return to Syria.

What are Turkey’s targets in Syria now?

Laying out their targets in current media interviews, senior Turkish officers have mentioned their first precedence is to dismantle the Kurdish fighter group in Syria generally known as the YPG.

However the YPG is a major a part of a Kurdish coalition — the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — that america supplied with weapons to assist combat towards the Islamic State group.

Turkey says the YPG is the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Staff’ Get together (PKK), a separatist group that has fought Turkey for over 4 a long time and is listed as a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S.

Turkish officers mentioned they’re asking the U.S. to reassess its place with the YPG.

To date, U.S. officers haven’t signaled any modifications to their coverage of supporting the Kurdish coalition.

On Tuesday, State Division spokesperson Matthew Miller mentioned a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdish coalition forces in Manbij has been extended until the end of the week.

Miller mentioned the U.S. understands Turkey has “reputable issues” about a number of the fighters in Syria and is speaking to Turkish authorities “to discover a path ahead.”

Turkish officers mentioned their different goal is the formation of a secure and united Syria.

Turkish gendarmerie examine the paperwork of Syrian households dwelling in Turkey on the Cilvegozu border gate as they wait to cross into Syria, on Dec. 13, after Syrian rebels ousted President Bashar al-Assad.

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Burak Kara/Getty Photographs

“We wish each a civil and democratic state,” International Minister Fidan mentioned.

Turkey’s protection minister additionally provided army help and coaching to the brand new leaders of Syria.

“I believe Turkey will likely be there to assist with the brand new administration that will likely be shaped there,” mentioned Mustafa Kibaroglu, director of graduate research in political science and worldwide relations at MEF College in Istanbul. “As a result of what occurs there has a direct bearing on Turkish prosperity, safety, every part, so we can’t simply flip a blind eye.”

Will Turkey play a much bigger position within the area as effectively?

Analysts anticipate Turkey to be influential within the Center East, however to not search hegemony in the best way that Iran has with its proxies Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Turkish International Minister Fidan appeared to ship a message to Center Jap leaders that outlined Turkey’s imaginative and prescient for the area.

“By standing shoulder to shoulder, we should set up our personal pursuits and order within the area,” Fidan mentioned within the TV interview on Sunday.

“We don’t need Iranian domination within the area, nor do we would like Turkish or Arab domination,” he added.

Kibaroglu, of MEF College’s graduate college, agrees. “We now have seen how issues could flip up within the unfavourable sense for many who attempt to dominate the area,” he mentioned. “We now have seen the position Iran performed particularly since Nineties and now they needed to withdraw their troops and paramilitaries and proxies to a fantastic extent.”

Analysts say a number of the Turkish public is cautious of deeper involvement within the Center East.

“My hunch is that the Turkish safety elites have realized their classes from the ancient times when that [domination] was very a lot on their agenda,” Ozel mentioned. “Turkey could be very influential as an actor, however inside limits. And if it manages the state of affairs effectively, it can profit closely.”